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    σ-driven project management: when is the optimal time to give up? math practices erikbern.com
    jamesmacaulay avatar via jamesmacaulay 2 months ago |
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    migurski avatar migurski 2 months ago | link

    Fascinating implication for projects with different amounts of risk, expressed as sigma:

    So just as an example, if σ = 1.0, then we should give up at 320% of the original estimate. If we follow this policy, then we finish about 88% of all project.

    But if σ = 1.4, then we should give up at 72% of the original estimate, and if we do that, we finish only 41% of all projects.

    High risk projects should be abandoned at just two-thirds of their expected duration.