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    Dug up by @hwayne, I think this is a helpful exposure to critical thinking about factors of safety and engineering projects.

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      …the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000.

      Dated June 9, 1986, I think the 1 in 100 figure is very obviously accurate at this point, given 2 losses amid 135 missions. [0]

      [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Space_Shuttle_missions