The issue with this, as with any other forward looking statement, is that technology changes. In the next ten years we will have something high density, durable and cheap to store for write only (a lot of what is mentioned in this article is archival data). Probably some variation of optical storage.
Yeah this is very interesting, it is however notoriously difficult to predict inventions. Given things go how things gone I can definitely see his argument, but I can also see some idiot in a garage totally wrecking his curves.
The issue with this, as with any other forward looking statement, is that technology changes. In the next ten years we will have something high density, durable and cheap to store for write only (a lot of what is mentioned in this article is archival data). Probably some variation of optical storage.
The author appears to have accounted for that.
Yeah this is very interesting, it is however notoriously difficult to predict inventions. Given things go how things gone I can definitely see his argument, but I can also see some idiot in a garage totally wrecking his curves.
The projections in the 3rd graph are taken directly from the disk industry, so I don’t think they’re just a wild guess.
I never said they were a wild guess, however even mature businesses often have trouble predicting technology 10 years out.