Isn’t this just likelihood to reoffend? Seems like a lot of buzzwords for something that’s still based on past behavior.
Same. One of the factors is criminal record, which sound more like post-crime than pre-crime. Then they mention sex, but there’s zero info provided about how such factors are weighted or interact.
This would be a much better article if it focused on what’s actually different. It sounds like parole boards are already making these decisions. Codifying it upfront seems much preferable than rolling the dice with them.
The original FiveThirtyEight article is much better than the Infowars post, both at explaining what’s actually different and at discussing the different factors that Pennsylvania’s proposed sentencing tool takes into account. It also addresses arguments in favor of the proposed changes, and even attempts to anticipate potential questions from the reader rather than taking the reader’s position on the issue for granted.
Nice. I’m much happier I read the whole thing now instead of just the quoted sections.
The example of the drunk driver is interesting. He says he’s never breaking the law again after a year in prison. One wonders why he’s decided that now, as opposed to after his first two arrests. Is identifying him as high risk the wrong decision? (In order to get four points, that requires over 7 priors. So actually he hasn’t had two prior arrests, it was two DUIs, plus five other crimes.)
To answer my earlier question, the scale is available in the sidebar. https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/lb_sentencing_chart.png?w=607&h=650
It’s interesting to see the age ranges vary. Also, Allegheny County is apparently bad news.