I am not satisfied by this argument.
I don’t think unseating rails is easy, and the author’s prediction may very well come true, I don’t agree with the reasoning for why. Inertia is powerful, brainshare is hard to overcome.
Dumping any semblance of what folks call “magic” as a discriminator isn’t what is going to win folks over. I can’t say for certain what will, except that having unique and clear advantages will help. It’s about timing, luck, effort, money, and ideas.
“Why Apples will never unseat Oranges”