I have ranted often in this and other forums that problem with project estimation is, that nobody actually cares about the answers.
Project Estimation is merely a data intensive exercise in bayesian modeling. ie. Just work. It can be done scientifically, it the answers will be probabilistic.
So I’m going to challenge my own assertion here….
Maybe I am wrong.
Maybe there are Project Managers out there that really care about project estimation, and are looking for a tool that handles the probability distributions correctly.
If I created a Software As A Service site…
Possibly with some facilities to query and “What If” around adjusting parameters like resources and scope.
Possibly with some sensitivity analysis to indicate which parameters have most effect on various outputs.
Question for Lobsters:
Would any project manager pay for such a service?
Would any team do the data entry to accurately track time / story points / available man hours / …?