Readers have probably seen Elon Musk freaking out over the coming AI apocalypse. And most recently the FB CEO has fired back that he thinks Musk is wrong. Most AI researches I have listened to seem to think Musk is overreacting and some don’t.
This debate is a good example of a type of problem that I don’t feel I have the mental model to really consider, and that is if something’s progress is accurately described as exponential how do you think about it? In AI is exponential than even though things seem dumb right now, in 5 years they could easily be far beyond what we imagine.
But my question is not about if AI is exponential in its progress or if Musk is right.
Does anyone here have common mental tools they use to analyse and draw conclusions from things whose progress is non-linear over time?