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Abstract: “Since its beginning in the 1950s, the field of artificial intelligence has cycled several times between periods of optimistic predictions and massive investment (“AI spring”) and periods of disappointment, loss of confidence, and reduced funding (“AI winter”). Even with today’s seemingly fast pace of AI breakthroughs, the development of long-promised technologies such as self-driving cars, housekeeping robots, and conversational companions has turned out to be much harder than many people expected. One reason for these repeating cycles is our limited understanding of the nature and complexity of intelligence itself. In this paper I describe four fallacies in common assumptions made by AI researchers, which can lead to overconfident predictions about the field. I conclude by discussing the open questions spurred by these fallacies, including the age-old challenge of imbuing machines with humanlike common sense. “

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    I’m not an A.I. practioner, merely an armchair enthusiast and in recent years I’ve become quite the pessimist.

    I’ve often derided tech companies for releasing glorifying if/then/else statements packaged as products, mainly out of frustration. Where are all the advancements that are supposed to make my life easier? An actual assistant? My NetNavi (Megaman Battle Network)?

    I think what needs to happen is understanding of how a baby’s brain grows and then, accumulates knowledge based on all the senses available to it. It is fascinating how babies are able to literally transform into a functional human before your very eyes, when they figure out how to process the deluge of information sent to them.

    Which brings me to the concern a lot of people have about AI. What’s to prevent the AI from deciding it doesn’t want to listen to you? My son just turned five and boy, he does NOT want to listen. I can manage it because he’s a tiny human and I can easily put objects out of his reach. When you have AI running aspects of your life, that sounds like a recipe for disaster. There is no intelligence without free will.

    Anyhoo, that’s my rant. Tech companies should stop pretending they have AI and maybe chill out on the buzzwords. Focus on the product and try to make something decent.